New US-funded weapons could arrive in Ukraine ‘in days’

U.S. President Joe Biden wants to provide some £50 billion ($61B) in military aid to Ukraine as soon as possible amid concerns Kyiv’s fighters are beginning to wilt under the onslaught of Vladimir Putin ‘s army. The Biden administration has said it is prepared to start moving weapons and equipment into Ukraine within days, provided that the Senate green-lights the aid package this week. That is because it has a network of storage sites in the U.S. and Europe that already hold the ammunition and air defence components that Kyiv desperately needs.

Lawmakers and experts agree that the artillery rounds, long-range precision-guided missiles and air defences included in the package will change the military outlook for Ukraine, with one U.S. official insisting ‘there won’t be any delays or bottlenecks on our side’ for their delivery in comments to Reuters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has long campaigned for Western allies to provide additional military aid, said: ‘I think this support will really strengthen the armed forces of Ukraine and we will have a chance for victory.’ But analysts have warned that Kyiv’s troops will face enormous hardships as they attempt to push back the Russians due to manpower shortages and their lack of ammunition.

It comes as the Kremlin today scoffed that the new military aid package will not change the face of the conflict for Ukraine, and warned that U.S., British and French support for Kyiv is putting the world on course for a nuclear clash. Aid for Ukraine had been held up for months over objections from hard-right Republican lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives. On Saturday, the House passed a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. It now heads to the Senate and passage is expected this week, clearing the way for President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

$61 billion of the $95 billion package is earmarked for Ukraine, but of this, only $13.8 billion will used to purchase weapons directly from U.S. defence contractors to re-arm Kyiv. About a third of the total is dedicated to replenishing the U.S. military’s stockpiles, and the rest takes the form of military training, intelligence sharing, and nonmilitary economic assistance. Over the weekend, Zelensky welcomed the advancing of the aid package and repeatedly urged lawmakers to swiftly pass the bill in the Senate so the transfer of weapons can happen quickly. That is because the delay in approving new supplies has been costly for Kyiv.

‘The aid is coming way too late, as materiel shortages resulted in Ukraine losing the initiative in October 2023,’ said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. Since October, Ukraine has lost 225 square miles of territory to Russian forces, largely because of a lack of artillery, said Stepanenko, who added that Russia has had time to prepare for offensive operations expected in late spring or early summer. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence said in an interview published today that the situation for Ukraine on its front line is likely to steadily deteriorate in the coming weeks as outgunned and outmanned soldiers struggle to hold back Russian troops.

There is also a manpower shortage, analysts have said, with new draftees requiring months of training before they can be deployed. ‘In our opinion, a rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future,’ Kyrylo Budanov told the BBC ‘s Ukrainian service. ‘There will be problems starting from mid-May. I am talking about the front in particular… It will be a difficult period in mid-May, early June,’ Budanov said. Matthew Savill, military sciences director at the London-based RUSI think-tank, said it was unrealistic to expect Kyiv to be able to push Russian forces back this year, even with the new weapons systems, due to the delay in aid getting to the front.

‘Essentially what we’re looking at in 2024 is as strong enough a defensive position as possible, but accepting that the Ukrainians are probably going to lose some ground to the Russians. This is far later and a far less favourable position than the Ukrainians would have been hoping for in winter in terms of this support and other support,’ he said. ‘The big challenge now is to simultaneously put up a strong defence and then prepare for an offensive in 2025.’ But if the Senate passes the legislative aid package this week, Ukraine’s military should be able to put the munitions – especially ATACMS missiles, air defence interceptors and artillery shells – to use ‘almost immediately’, said retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett of the Institute for Security Policy and Law at Syracuse University.

Zelensky has asked for ATACMS, long-range guided missiles that allow Ukraine to hit targets such Russian command posts and weapons depots in Crimea. Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner told CBS’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that military equipment including the longer-range ATACMS should be ‘in transit by the end of the week’ providing the Senate also passes the legislation. Ukraine should also receive more missiles for the Patriot air defence system, which has proven effective against missile and drone attacks.

Riki Ellison, founder of the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, said U.S. weapons makers had been ramping up production of missiles for the Patriot defence systems to meet demand and should be ready to ship missiles quickly. CIA Director William Burns, speaking on Thursday in Dallas, said the weapons could be hugely effective for Ukraine’s war effort. ‘With the boost that will come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024 and puncturing Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,’ the CIA Director said.

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